Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

631
FXUS63 KDLH 141143
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather is expected over the next several days with unseasonably
  warm high temps. Patchy fog will be the primary concern this
  morning and again tonight.

- An impactful system will be moving into the Upper Midwest late
  Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. This system will be
  bringing a wintry mix and the potential for moderate to heavy
  wet snowfall.

- An active pattern persists late this upcoming week with
  additional chances for snowfall as temperatures return to more
  seasonable levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Quiet weather is occurring early this morning across the Northland
with mostly clear skies as high pressure remains over the Upper
Midwest. Patchy fog has been occurring overnight, especially in the
southern CWA where winds are comparatively lighter than
locations farther north. As diurnal cooling continues early this
morning and dewpoint depressions continue to decrease,
additional areas of patchy fog will develop across the CWA.
However, widespread dense fog is not expected this morning as
the low-levels remain on the drier side following yesterday`s
abnormally warm temperatures.

Another warm day is anticipated today, with the mode of model
guidance showing high temps this afternoon solidly around to
slightly above the 75th percentile of the NBM. In the forecast
update this morning, temperatures were lowered by a few degrees
compared to yesterday, mainly due to increased cloud cover expected
today as low to mid level moisture increases ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. Despite this increased cloud cover, high temps
today will be warm in the 40s to near 50 across much of the CWA.

With the increased moisture coming into the area associated with the
approaching shortwave, widespread fog is likely (70% chance). The
pattern remains fairly benign on Sunday through Tuesday morning as
the storm track of Clippers remains well to the north of the CWA in
northern Ontario and Manitoba. High temps remain on the warm side
with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the
teens to 20s.

Attention turns to a much more active pattern that will be
developing late Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the
workweek. A deep trough is expected to develop over the western
CONUS on Monday into Tuesday, with a negatively-tilted trough being
ejected from this deep trough into the Upper Midwest. 00z runs of
the ECMWF ensemble and GEFS came into better agreement between the
two global ensembles, with MSLP centers indicating low pressure
moving through the Upper Mississippi River valley by early
Wednesday morning. A large deformation zone associated with this
low is currently on track to be setting up over much of the
CWA, bringing widespread precipitation Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.

One of the main questions at this time is how far north the warm
front will lift into the CWA, which will have large implications
on the amount of rain versus snow from this system. While the
global ensembles are coming into better agreement for low
pressure moving into the Upper Midwest around midweek, small
spatial differences will have large implications on precip type.
At this time, the dominant precip type for most of the CWA
during the duration of this midweek system is forecast to be
snow.

While a rain/snow mix is likely initially, especially in the
southern CWA on Tuesday afternoon and evening, this will be
transitioning to all snow by Wednesday afternoon as the cold sector
engulfs the area. The latest run of the NBM has a widespread 40%
chance or higher for at least 4" of snow. There is also a 40% chance
or higher for 8" of snow along the North Shore as easterly winds are
likely to lead to lake and orographic enhancement of snowfall. If
trends continue to hold, a Winter Storm Watch may be needed.

As the deep trough over the western CONUS propagates east through
this upcoming week, this will eject additional shortwaves into the
Upper Midwest. This keeps an active pattern over the CWA on Thursday
into Friday with additional chances for snowfall as more seasonable
temperatures return. While the near term will feel more springlike,
this upcoming week will be a reminder that winter isn`t quite over
yet!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

While most terminals are seeing VFR conditions early this morning
there are areas of patchy fog, most notably around the Twin Ports
and Brainerd Lakes area. This MVFR to IFR fog is expected to
dissipate shortly after sunrise. While this morning`s fog will be
quick to dissipate, a second round of fog will potentially move into
far north-central MN this afternoon. More widespread fog development
is likely (60% chance) tonight into early Sunday morning as
additional moisture moves into the area. Light southerly winds this
morning shift to the northwest late this evening into tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light winds and minimal wave action are forecast over the next
48 hours. There is a 50-60 percent chance of gale force easterly
winds Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM as a strong winter storm
moves into the Upper Midwest. Pending this forecast track
continuing, a Gale Watch is likely to be needed over the next
few days for mid next week. There is also a low 15% chance for
storm force gusts along the North Shore Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh