Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS63 KDLH 141137
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon into the
  evening for the Minnesota Arrowhead due to gusty winds and low
  humidity.

- Thunderstorm chances have increased for Monday afternoon and
  evening across the Northland, with periodic rain chances
  continuing next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Isolated showers lingered across the Northland early this
morning as an upper trough rotated through the Upper Midwest.
This activity will diminish over the next few hours with dry
conditions expected for the bulk of Sunday. The primary forecast
concern for today continues to be the fire weather conditions
across the Arrowhead. Have lowered RH values slightly with this
update to drop areas in the Red Flag Warning to 25% RH values or
lower. Winds will gust again to 20 to 30 mph out of the west to
northwest today. These conditions could lead to the rapid spread
of fires across portions of St. Louis and Lake counties today.
Cloud cover may linger across Cook County which would keep RH
values there slightly higher. If clouds are able to clear, RH
values across Cook County will likely trend lower and the Red
Flag Warning may need to be expanded as winds are already there.
This is mainly for the lakeshore/south Cook zone as the
remainder of Cook is already in due to being combined with Lake
County. No significant changes were made to the remainder of
the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For the rest of the day, expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies
with unseasonably cool temperatures only reaching the upper 50s
to mid 60s. We have bumped up the chances for precipitation this
afternoon, utilizing coverage wording to reflect the isolated
to scattered rain showers currently moving across the area.
While it is raining out there in spots, the actual chances of
any one location getting hit remain fairly small. Gusty west
winds have also prompted a Small Craft Advisory for western Lake
Superior through this afternoon. Showers will gradually taper
off tonight as a cooler air mass settles over the region,
dropping low temperatures into the 40s - maybe even into the 30s
in the typical cool spots.

Sunday will feature clearing skies and slightly warmer
temperatures, but the main story will be the critical fire
weather conditions. We have dropped relative humidity values
below standard guidance for Sunday afternoon, which combined
with gusty northwest winds to 30 mph, has necessitated the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the Minnesota Arrowhead
region. While lingering cloud cover may initially slow the
drying process, clearing skies from the west should put areas
like Lake and St. Louis counties solidly in the threat area.
There is a bit of uncertainty regarding the cloud cover retreat
as an upper low spins to our northeast. If we do get the
clearing, any fires that develop will spread rapidly, so outdoor
burning is highly discouraged. Highs on Sunday will range from
the mid 60s to lower 70s across the Northland.

As we head into the new work week, Monday will begin with
sunshine before our next weather system approaches. We have
increased the chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday
afternoon and evening across the area as a quick moving
disturbance drops down from Canada. While severe weather is not
anticipated at this time, these storms could produce localized
heavy downpours and lightning. Temperatures will continue to
slowly moderate, reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations.

The overall weather pattern through the middle and end of next
week will be characterized by continuous northwest flow aloft,
resulting in multiple quick moving systems passing through the
region. This will bring periodic off and on chances for rain and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The most
widespread precipitation currently looks to target the Wednesday
timeframe as a slightly stronger wave moves through the Great
Lakes. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal
through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the
upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s.

By late Thursday into Friday, the broad upper level ridging
currently stationed over the western United States may begin to
drift eastward. This shift would potentially transition our
winds to a more southerly direction, introducing a warm air
advection pattern. As a result, we could see a return to more
typical, warmer summertime weather and drier conditions heading
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the Northland this morning with a
few pockets of MVFR ceilings, mainly across northwest
Wisconsin and in the Twin Ports. Expecting ceilings to rise to
VFR in these locations by mid to late morning with VFR
conditions then prevailing for the remainder of the period.
Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will continue with gusts
to 20 to 25 knots through early evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Breezy westerly winds will again be in place today with gusts to
20 to 25 knots, mainly along the North Shore. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued for the Twin Ports and the North
Shore. Winds will diminish late this afternoon and early evening
before increasing again Monday morning from the southwest. Gusts
to 20 knots are expected with isolated higher gusts to 25 knots
near Grand Portage and in the Twin Ports. Another round of
advisories may be required. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will move through Monday afternoon into Monday night, but no
strong or severe storms are currently expected. Variable winds
are then expected for Tuesday at 5 to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Dry and breezy conditions across the Minnesota Arrowhead will
lead to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Afternoon RH values will fall into the 20 to 25% range across
portions of St. Louis and Lake counties with westerly winds
gusting to 20 to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
these areas. Cloud cover may linger across Cook County, but if
skies clear quicker than expected, RH values there will likely
trend lower and the warning may need to be expanded. RH values
elsewhere will be in the 25 to 30% range with breezy west winds
to around 25 mph. Winds look a bit lighter for Monday with
chances for showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and
overnight hours. How quick this activity arrives may play a
role in how low RH values go during the afternoon. If activity
is slower to arrive than currently expected, RH values across
northeastern Minnesota will likely trend lower than forecast.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ011-012-019-020.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH