Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

173
FXUS63 KDLH 041619
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening with damaging winds and heavy
  downpours the main threats. Outflow boundaries will be the
  trigger mechanisms for storms today.

- A high risk of rip currents exists today for Minnesota and
  Wisconsin Point beaches due to gusty northeast winds.

- The heat builds back into the region by Monday with
  temperatures pushing into the middle and upper 80s for most of
  the Northland.

- Next week the flooding threat increases as a stationary front
  lingers in the area in a rich moisture environment with
  parallel to the front upper level flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Happy Fourth of July to the Northland. The main focus for today
will be shower and thunderstorm chances. Outflow boundaries
will be the trigger mechanisms for storms today. Because of
this, we have upped PoPs to have a minimum of 20 percent across
the Northland given the nature of the environment. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe, with damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to quarter size, and heavy downpours
that could lead to localized flooding. The best environment for
stronger storms is across north-central Minnesota where
buoyancy is highest while a local minima exists in the Arrowhead
east of Silver Bay. We could also see some appreciable rainfall
amounts out of these storms, with the HREF max and LPMM
products suggesting very localized totals of 3"+, location
dependent on exactly where storms fire. Many model solutions
however are suggesting that some of the highest precipitation
totals could be in the Itasca/Cass/Aitkin county to I-35 and
Twin Ports area, which is where some of the highest localized
rainfall totals have been recently. If heavy rains fall in the
right area, some localized flooding could be possible. The
primary timing for widespread storms and any severe risk should
be between 3-10 PM. Thinking about 30% of folks will have their
evening activities impacted by these thunderstorms.

Aside from the storms, it will be a cooler day near Lake
Superior with gusty northeast winds keeping highs in the 60s,
while inland areas reach the 70s and low 80s.

Heading into Sunday, the upper level disturbance that is
bringing us today`s active weather will slowly push eastward. We
could see a few lingering showers or a rumble of thunder,
primarily across northwest Wisconsin, but severe weather is not
anticipated. Much of the area will enjoy a mostly sunny and
slightly warmer day to finish the holiday weekend, with high
temperatures rebounding into the 70s to lower 80s. The northeast
winds off Lake Superior will also gradually subside throughout
the day.

High pressure briefly builds across the region on Monday,
bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. High
temperatures will climb well into the middle and upper 80s for a
vast majority of the area. Most of the daylight hours on Monday
should remain dry under plenty of sunshine, but we are
monitoring the approach of another weather system that will
bring precipitation chances back to the region by late Monday
night.

The extended forecast for Tuesday through Friday looks active as
a stationary frontal boundary sets up shop across the Upper
Midwest. This will bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to our region, particularly peaking in coverage
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Rich PWATs of 2" will linger
around this boundary giving a heavy rainfall and flooding threat
which is emphasized by the WPC`s Slight Risk for Flash Flooding
on Day 5. Totally warranted with upper level flow parallel to
this low level boundary allowing for elevated potential for
training storms along the stationary boundary. Euro EFI does
hint at a SOT of > 1 for this time period though still a bit of
uncertainty at where this boundary sets up and if ingredients
align. As of now, it looks like a good setup for heavy rainfall.
High temperatures will generally remain in the 80s through
midweek before slowly tapering back into the 70s by Thursday and
Friday behind the departing system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions except near scattered thunderstorms persisting
into the evening. Storms should produce heavy rain, localized
IFR visibilities, and gusty erratic winds. Otherwise, expect
northeast to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots for most
terminals through the next 24 hours, with DLH experiencing the
strongest gusts to 25 knots off the lake today. Fog will likely
be a problem tonight - especially where it rains today.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Gusty northeast winds will persist across western Lake Superior
today. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots will build waves to 2 to 4
feet, especially around the Twin Ports and the Outer Apostle
Islands, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening,
presenting a risk for lightning. Winds and waves will gradually
subside on Sunday as high pressure approaches. Expect winds to
be relatively light through the remainder of the forecast.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with a
mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected today, with isolated severe storms possible, bringing a
threat for strong outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Winds will be primarily out of the east and northeast today and
tomorrow, generally remaining light inland but becoming blustery
near Lake Superior. Minimum relative humidity values will hover
in the 50 to 70 percent range today, dropping into the 40 to 60
percent range on Sunday. Southerly winds and hotter
temperatures return on Monday with a lot of rainfall expected
next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-
     145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
FIRE WEATHER...Wolfe