Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

623
FXUS63 KDLH 061135
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong westerly winds to continue through most of today in
  the wake of an overnight cold front. Wind Advisories have been
  issued for portions of northern MN.

- Dry conditions with large diurnal temperature ranges to start
  next week with additional frost and freeze headlines possible
  in the mornings.

- Warming trend by mid and late week with highs climbing well
  above normal. Highs are currently projected to be back into
  the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Wind remains our most interesting weather element this morning
in the wake of a strong cold front passing through the area. We
have a large area of pressure rises over Manitoba which will
slide southeast across the Northland this morning along with
strong cold air advection, steep low level lapse rates and
strong winds aloft to mix down. Earlier this evening, wind gusts
of over 50 mph were observed over central and eastern North
Dakota in a similar environment. While I do not expect
widespread wind speeds quite that strong over the Northland
today, the EFI remains 0.9 with a shift of tails of 1, showing
very strong winds, but the potential for a high wind warning is
low. With that said though, we`ve had some localized gusts in
the 40 to 50 mph range already this morning, and we are only
just now getting into the steepest of low level lapse rates with
40 to 50 knot winds aloft which continue through the morning
before diminishing during the afternoon. The Wind Advisory has
been expanded to include Central and Southern St. Louis, Carlton
and Aitkin counties as we are seeing these strong winds
developing for these locations as well. In addition to the
strong winds today, we are going to have a large temperature
drop from yesterday, that combined with the strong winds is
going to feel rather disagreeable, especially for those who have
been enjoying the warm temperatures so far this fall. High
temperatures today should only get into the upper 40s and 50s, a
10 to 20 degree drop from yesterday. We also have some
potential for afternoon showers in the cyclonic flow over the
Arrowhead. The South Shore may see some Lake Effect Showers as
the cool (-4C @850mb) NW flow streams over the warm (16C) Lake
Superior, though the dry low level conditions may eat these back
to no more than virga.

Tonight through early next week is going to remain dry with
large diurnal temperature ranges of around 30 degrees. Daytime
highs will be near to slightly above normal through at least
Tuesday, with overnight lows near normal. However, near normal
this time of year means we are looking at overnight lows in the
low to mid 30s with areas of frost, especially for our cold
spots around the Northland.

The dry conditions continue through the end of the work week
with a gradual warming trend as ridging aloft pushes a dome of
warm air over the area. High temperatures by Friday should be
back into the 70s to around 80. Once again, there are hints at
some precipitation chances next weekend, but the upper level
pattern will be fast and zonal, meaning it will be hard to
narrow down just when we might get the right combination of a
surface boundary, some moisture and the right shortwave to
develop precipitation. Confidence remains low, but the chance is
out there.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Wind and MVFR stratus the main concern this forecast in the
wake of a cold front and low pressure system as it moves east
out of the area. Strong west winds early this morning gusting 25
to 35 knots will remain strong through most of the morning
hours, then diminish through the afternoon and early evening,
dropping off to less than 10 kts by 02z, and remaining so
through the rest of the TAF period. The area of MVFR or low end
VFR ceilings over the area this morning is expected to slowly
lift and erode from west to east, with KBRD returning to VFR
around 15z, with the terminals returning to VFR by 19z. VFR
conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Strong gusty west to northwest winds in the wake of a cold front
are ramping up over western Lake Superior this morning, Gusts so
far for most locations are in the 25 to 35 knot range, with the
light house towers for Devils Island and Rock of Ages peaking
from 35 to 40 knots. These winds are expected to continue to
increase this morning, peaking around mid-day with lake surface
wind gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range, with the elevated towers
higher yet. These strong winds will cause waves of 6 to 8 feet
along the south shore, especially around the Apostle Islands
where occasional waves to 12 feet are possible. Winds to
gradually diminish through the afternoon and evening. Gale
warnings that are already in effect extend through today into
this evening, though we may be able to drop some of the north
shore zones during the late afternoon. Expect a transition to
Small Craft Advisories for tonight until winds and waves fully
subside, which at the worst case may not be until Monday. Winds
of less than 15 knots veer into the north Monday night into
Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010-011-018-
     025-026-033-034.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ012-020-021.
     Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for MNZ019-035>037.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE